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News Archive 2003 There Is Enough
Electricity for Summer Cooling, if . . .
By LESLIE EATON
The New York Times
May 23, 2003
As people in and around New York City prepare to rev up their
air-conditioners, the electricity industry says there will
be enough power to keep all that cool air pumping all summer.
Probably. Unless something happens. Like it gets really hot.
A report released yesterday by the organization that operates
the state's high-voltage power system said that the supply
of electricity in the city should be "marginally adequate"
if temperatures are normal
But the organization, the New York Independent System Operator,
warned of problems if there is "a repeat of the 2002
summer heat waves, or increased generation and/or transmission
outages."
At a news conference yesterday, William J. Museler, the
president of the system operator, said, "New York City
does have what it needs, but it does not have any excess."
A similar warning was sounded earlier this month by the
North American Electric Reliability Council, a related national
electricity group. It said that while the rest of the country
has enough power to meet its needs, that is not necessarily
the case in southwestern Connecticut, New York City and Long
Island.
In the metropolitan region, transmission systems cannot
easily bring in all the power needed, and the amount of power
generated within the area is also limited. So while local
utilities try to develop long-term solutions, their spokesmen
said in interviews, they are relying on various stopgap measures
to squeak through the summer surge in demand for power.
The Long Island Power Authority, for example, is adding
another small generating plant this summer, its fifth in two
years, said Richard M. Kessel, the authority's chairman. It
also has several programs to cut residential and business
power use during peak times.
So while the situation on Long Island is better than it
was a couple of years ago, he said, "the worry is that
if you have an extremely hot summer and a major piece of equipment
goes down, things are going to be extremely tight."
Little more than a year ago, some energy experts were saying
that the city and surrounding areas had all the power they
needed, and more. Those forecasts were based in part on the
assumption that the softening economy would mute any increases
in the demand for power.
It did not quite work out that way. Last summer, power use
in New York City set a record of almost 17.5 million megawatt
hours, an increase of almost 4 percent from the previous year,
according to Consolidated Edison.
And demand is likely to continue to increase this year,
said Michael Clendenin, a Con Ed spokesman. "Our load-growth
forecast is 250 megawatts above last year's peak," he
said, adding that the increase was being driven by a growing
number of air-conditioners, an increase in housing units and
population, and perhaps a decline in summer travel.
The company said it would meet its regulatory requirement
to be able to provide 8,816 megawatts in the city, but only
by using programs that induce big power consumers to cut back
when necessary. The rest of the power the city needs —
at its all-time peak last July 3 it used 12,086 megawatts
— flows into the city from other areas over transmission
lines.
While there were several blackouts in parts of the city
last summer, Mr. Clendenin said those were not related to
supply shortages, but were caused by equipment problems.
The tight supply of power may also help drive up electricity
prices, some industry experts said. "The entire state
of Connecticut is seeing it," said Frank Poirot, a spokesman
for Connecticut Light and Power. The price increases, he said,
are coming from new "congestion charges," which
penalize utilities — and ultimately consumers —
for inadequate transmission capacity.
The company is adding two generators and installing new
technology. But, Mr. Poirot added, "If one transmission
line goes out on a hot day, if one power plant goes down,
we could find ourselves in serious trouble."
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